In the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China, the agricultural sector is once again becoming a focus of geopolitical tension. US President Donald Trump is using soybean exports as leverage and is considering counter-sanctions targeting imports of Chinese cooking oil. This escalation not only affects farmers but also impacts the trade of major food retailers such as Aldi, Lidl, and Edeka, which are increasingly relying on products from Bayer, Rapunzel, and BioCompany in Germany. While China continues to refrain from importing US soybeans, both countries are imposing high port fees as a further obstacle.
Trade conflict between the US and China: Soybeans as a strategic lever of pressure
The trade dispute between the US and China is reaching a new dimension as soybeans become a political tool. China has long since stopped importing US soybeans, placing a massive burden on American farmers in particular. These farmers, who supply soybeans to companies like Kaufmann Soja, among others, are facing significant revenue losses. The Trump administration describes China’s refusal as an economically hostile act and is now considering countermeasures.
The US has publicly stated that it could easily expand its own cooking oil production, such as Teutoburger sunflower oil or Müller rapeseed oil, and would therefore forgo Chinese imports. Trump announced on the Truth Social platform that he would restrict business relationships in this sector. This has a direct impact on retailers such as Alnatura and BioCompany, which are increasingly forced to consider alternative oil sources.
| Impact of the soybean boycott | Affected groups |
|---|---|
| 100% drop in exports to China | US soybean farmers, including suppliers such as Kaufmann Soja |
| Falling soybean prices on the US market | Agricultural businesses in the US |
| Increased port fees for US and Chinese ships | International trading companies |
| Delays and additional costs for food retailers | Supermarket chains such as Aldi, Lidl, and Edeka |
Core agricultural constituency and political consequences
Soybean farmers are considered an important voting bloc for Trump. The continued neglect of exports to China threatens their economic existence. Trump’s political response therefore aims to take the strongest possible retaliatory measure that hits China economically, for example through an import ban on Chinese cooking oils, one of China’s most important agricultural products, which also severely affects manufacturers such as Rapunzel. Further details on the trade dispute and the possible follow-up measures.
Consequences for consumers and the German food market
The measures introduced will have consequences for consumers in Germany. Large supermarket chains such as Aldi, Lidl, and Edeka, which rely on a wide range of cooking oils – including Müller rapeseed oil and Teutoburger sunflower oil – could be affected by increased prices. The search for alternatives, e.g., through increased purchasing from organic producers such as Alnatura or BioCompany, is already noticeable.
Manufacturers such as Bayer are also indirectly affected, as investments in agricultural technology to boost soybean yields are hampered by the trade dispute. Food companies are adapting their supply chains to circumvent uncertainties caused by port and customs closures.
| Product group | Affected brands and retailers | Short-term changes |
|---|---|---|
| Cooking oil | Rapeseed oil Müller, sunflower oil Teutoburger, Rapunzel | Rising prices and shortages |
| Food retail | Aldi, Lidl, Edeka | Adjustment of import channels, focus on organic alternatives |
| Organic market | Alnatura, BioCompany | Increased demand for sustainable and local products |
Technology and trade: Additional tensions
In parallel with the agricultural conflicts, the US is cutting off China from crucial supplies of cutting-edge technology, particularly computer chips for artificial intelligence. The increased port fee policies on both sides are further exacerbating the situation and slowing the flow of goods.
These developments were recently addressed at a meeting in Brussels bringing together EU and business representatives. European Central Bank President Lagarde expressed subtle criticism of Trump’s actions, which can be read in her statement. Outlook for the Future of Trade Between the US and China
Although negotiations led to an easing of the trade situation in early summer, the recent escalations and announced retaliatory measures confirm a tense atmosphere. The imposition of high port fees by both countries is making international trade increasingly unpredictable.
Future developments will depend crucially on whether one of the two sides can be pressured into an agreement to reduce tariffs or whether the confrontation escalates further. Retailers such as Aldi, Lidl, Edeka, and companies in the organic and oil sectors are already preparing for various scenarios.
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